Crypto odds
Probably
Waiting on the tape · 24h move
Chance Bitcoin trades through your price at least once in 30 days.
Side of the price
Horizon
Remote on this model.
- Decimal
- —
- American
- —
- Profit / $100
- —
Fair profit is what a book could pay on a $100 stake if this chance were exact. It is not an offer.
Reading the tape and recent daily closes.
Where the close can sit
Median path, with a 10–90% band. The dashed line is your target. Trading through can happen even if the close is back on the other side.
Shape of the close
Assumptions
Noise window
Drift
Yearly volatility
- Median close
- —
- 10–90% band
- —
Counting daily closes.
Pinned on this device
Pin a question and it stays here, repriced off the live spot.
How this is counted
Price is treated as a lognormal random walk. Volatility is the standard deviation of daily log returns, scaled by the square root of 365. No drift means the median finish sits a little under spot, because of volatility drag. Recent trend uses the average return in the same window. That average jumps around. It is not a forecast.
Closes beyond is the chance the price is on your side of the target at the horizon. Trades through is the chance it hits that price at least once before then. The second number is higher whenever the target is still ahead of spot.
Real markets jump, cluster, and gap. This is a clean baseline you can argue with, not advice and not a prediction.